Análisis de las PASO: el 70% de Duhalde, “un país peronista”

Cuando se aprestaba a dejar la presidencia, Duhalde desarrollaba la teoría del porqué el PJ autorizaba las candidaturas simultáneas de Kirchner, Menem y Rodríguez Saá. Según él el 70 % del electorado era peronista. Parece que ese análisis sigue vigente.

Era una reunión aquí en Tucumán, debo decir que en ese tiempo Duhalde apoyaba a Néstor Kirchner. El grupo que recibía esa información era lo más del peronismo tucumano de esa época: Miranda, Guerrero, Juri y otros, estaban anonadados. Es decir no creían, o no estaban seguros de la certeza de esos guarismos.

Los resultados posteriores le dieron la razón. Kirchner se consagró presidente al abandonar Menem el balotaje que se venía, las encuestas eran abrumadoras y coincidentes: el riojano sería derrotado por una amplia mayoría que se volcaría en su contra.

El radicalismo, se sabe, no fue opción debido a la debacle partidaria que sobrevino a De la Rúa.

Este análisis lo debe creer vigente el ex presidente. Así se justifica su decisión de participar en estas elecciones presidenciales.

Cree además que el radicalismo, la otra fuerza política más importante del país junto con el peronismo no ha logrado recuperar la imagen de Gestión gubernamental, y que ahora en un marco mundial de por lo menos incertidumbre para la ciudadanía, el electorado se volcará a quiénes pueden exhibir capacidades de enfrentar crisis. En ese sentido se ve favorecido.

De ser cierto su análisis de entrar a una supuesta segunda vuelta, su posibilidad se verá disminuida o acrecentada según sea la cantidad de votos que obtenga Cristina y el porcentaje que este represente. Es decir que si Cristina tiene el 40 % de los votos el podría aglutinar el porcentaje restante de los votos peronistas que faltan para completar ese supuesto 30 %, y así participar de la segunda vuelta donde cree que captaría los votos anticristinistas.

Esta especulación, interesante por cierto, se hace trizas si Cristina se aleja, hacia arriba, en el porcentaje de los votos. Es decir suma más votos y supera el 45 % que la aleja del balotaje y se consagra así en primera vuelta.

Y es lo que los resultados de estas novedosas y democráticas PASO (Primarias abiertas simultáneas y obligatorias) están mostrando.

Por otra parte el resultado también muestra que se cumple lo del 70 % peronista, simpatizante o adherente a esta forma de gobierno. Cristina ganó en todo el país, salvo en San Luis, incluso en la Capital Federal, Santa Fe y Córdoba. A pesar de Macri y De la Sota.

En provincia de Buenos Aires se imponía por muy amplio margen haciendo trizas las ilusiones de Alfonsín y de Duhalde, cosa que por otra parte completaban Scioli y Mariotto ante el mediático De Narváez, quién quedaba muy alejado (más de 20 puntos) del actual gobernador bonaerense.

La alegría de Binner es justificada por una parte, pero exagerada por otra en el hecho de suponer que puede captar votos tan disímiles en su origen, como los que apoyaron es esta instancia a Duhalde o a Rodriguez Saá.

Gracias a Rial, o no, Altamira llegó al piso. Algo que se le negó al partido de Pino Solanas o a Fuerza Republicana.

Y va dentro del análisis de Duhalde el hecho de que Cristina amplió la base popular del peronismo y que sumados hoy son un poco más que el 70 %.

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    cars or property or for injuries they sustain. The “most expensive” list’s
    cars (the full top-20 list, not the top-10 listed above) had an average of 9.
    com announced that the first 500 questions about COBRA and alternate health insurance options would
    be answered and put up on their website.

  91. Alana Says:

    Apart from the fact that the Porsche is expensive,
    it is a small fast car with a high horsepower of 530.

    Don’t be surprised if you immediately find a few similar policies that are priced
    below what you are paying right now. Fortunately, finding
    the cheapest car insurance doesn.

  92. Amazon Says:

    Yes! Finally something about amazon.


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